New Numbers for a New Year!

Hello all!  It’s been crazy- busy at our home, and I’m sure at yours too.  I hate to be a cliché and write about looking back, and looking forward, but hey, it’s January of a new year. What can I say?

Ok. I promise.  I’ll keep my philosophical ranting, and resolution making and breaking discussions, off this page, and stick to some good old fashioned MLS market data to keep you up to date.

The following data is for single family homes only, Butler, Warren, Hamilton, and Clermont County. 

This data is compiled from The Greater Cincinnati Multiple Listing Service, as of about 10:30 a.m. or so today.
Once again, a “Distressed Property” is a bank owned or government owned foreclosed on property, or a property still owned by a consumer, but requiring bank approval for a “short sale”.

Obviously, the numbers speak to the issues we have all experienced in the local real estate market.  I want to point out that, while indeed, there was an explosion of distressed properties for sale over the last few years, the MLS wasn’t as strict or accurate “pre-market correction” as it is currently.  In other words, we didn’t keep track as well of short sales.  Many real estate agents didn’t even know what a short sale was until the last couple of years.  I remember a conversation in early 2007 with 25 year veteran about my fear that we would be seeing more and more short sales in the coming years.  Her response…”what’s a short sale?”  So there you have it.

Here are some current numbers:

2010 To Date as of 10:30 a.m. January 4, 2010

One thing that jumped out at me here is that while the average list price in the 4 main counties of Greater Cincinnati is $240,144, the average list price of the home under contract, waiting to close, is significantly lower: $157,854.  That tells me that the lower priced “bargains” continue to fuel this market.  It will be interesting, of course, to see what this next year brings.  The good news is that if this is your snapshot in time to be entering the real estate market as a buyer, there is still plenty of good reason to do so: low interest rates, tax credits, good inventory, and you still have the upper hand in most markets and price points.

Sellers:  don’t be discouraged. If this is your snapshot in time to put your home on the market,  just be sure to hire the team of agents with a proven track record, good marketing ideas, and a head for numbers ( hint, hint).  Priced well to be the “next best value”, your home will sell.    The RealCincy Group is here to offer advice and keep you up to date on the competition. In Ohio & Kentucky, we can help.  With our OUTSTANDING marketing and trend watching, we’ll get your home sold

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

Stalled Luxury Home Sales

A few months ago I gave you information about the upscale housing market in the Greater Cincinnati area.  Those areas included Butler, Warren, Hamilton and Clermont counties.  We discussed the Jumbo Mortgage Market, and how tight control on the interest rates for the luxury home market may be slowing the housing market, at the “grass roots” level.

I just put together an update with closed sales stats through November 15, 2009.  I thought you might like an update.

Single Family Sales: Butler, Warren, Hamilton and Clermont Counties.
Source: Greater Cincinnati Multiple Listing Service

It’s possible that once the current 23 pending sales do close, that we the “Over $700k+” sales will not come to the anticipated 138 total.  We will just have to see if those homes, in this buyer driven market, that are priced close to the $700,000 list price, do indeed sell over $700,000

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

Welcome to the Jungle!

Where can you feast on a lunch of fresh smoked salmon sushi under a giant, pink elephant head?  Where can you watch the enormous can of Campbell’s Soup enjoy a good time on a giant swing?  What other grocery brings shoppers in to shop, in a tour bus?  It can only be Jungle Jims!

Jungle Jim’s location is 5440 Dixie Highway (Route 4) in Fairfield, but going there feels like a shopping vacation!  Depending on where you live in the Greater Cincinnati area, it can be a bit of a drive.  From Milford or Eastgate,   it’s about 30 – 35 minutes.  From points in Mason, it will be perhaps 20 – 30 minutes.  If you live in the Hyde Park, Mt Lookout area, again, about 30 minutes.  But seriously. What else do you have to do on your day off? Laundry? Wash the floors? Nope….plan a trip to the Jungle.

The lively animated characters will entertain the kids, and the food selection will knock your socks off.  We can take a ½ hour just looking at the cheese selections. As Jungle Jim’s boasts over 1400 cheese selections in just the International Cheese section alone, before you even hit the deli, you can see why we get stalled! The bakery is just painful to enter if you have a sweet tooth.  So many dessert options. So little time.  There is an outstanding deli of course.  Select one or two of the overwhelming number of delicious prepared salads to enhance your main course.  There is a Natural Foods section, International Foods, and fresh Seafood.   You just have to go.

Soup on a swing? Why not!

We had our smoked salmon sushi lunch, and were treated to a complimentary taste of the hot cider.  We found the free samples of an outstanding fresh antipasto, and then tried the sample of whipped salmon mouse on a flat pretzel. Yes, if you are lucky, you can graze your way through the store.  Saturday and Sunday are the big sample days. 

There are more than just groceries here of course.  The Shasta store is fun. As in “She Hasta Have That”. Clever. If you have errands to run, there is a bank, post office and pharmacy to help check those chores off the list.  Be sure to check out the 2009 America’ Best Bathroom award winner.  I don’t generally recommend any particular locations “comfort station”.  Just trust me on this one.

There isn’t enough room here to discuss this place. I haven’t even mentioned the monorail, the humidor or the wine selection. Visit their site for all the latest information, including cooking school information and the online flyer of weekly specials.

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

More Mortgage Changes!

Having just missed Halloween, I may be a little late to try to scare you with a horror story or two. But hey! There’s never a moment when a good story to shake things up isn’t welcome.  Today, I wanted to share a potential trend that a few of us have experienced in the “wonderful world of real estate”: the lenders becoming involved in the home inspection negotiation process. If that doesn’t scare the living daylights out of you, maybe it should.

At the risk of redundancy, I’ll say it again. Home sellers REALLY need to have a home inspection prior to putting their home on the market. The little quirks and irks you’ve lived with for the last 5 – 15 years will show up on the inspection.  I know you don’t think the way the dryer vent exits the house right next to the outside air condition unit is an issue, but your buyer will. It’s been that way since the house was built in 1983. Doesn’t matter. It will show up on the report. 

I have already gone on about how this inspection portion of the purchase process can spook a nervous buyer and irk a seller who feels as though he has gone as low as he can go in this market, and he can’t be bothered with $300 roof repairs, $500 worth of broken window seals and a fireplace cap that needs replaced.  Knowing this information up front and having already made the necessary repairs, puts this seller in better negotiating position. And in this “buyer’s market”, wouldn’t you, as a home seller, want to find SOME advantageous position? And buyers, wouldn’t you like to buy a well maintained home that isn’t fraught with “surprise” issues? Just buy the home, bring your toothbrush, and move in!

A couple of lenders in the area have begun to ask for a copy of the home inspection summary page, and the addendum between buyer and seller outlining how any repairs will be handled.  One lender insisted on a physical re-inspection of the property prior to closing on what most of us would consider a “typical” FHA purchase.  Because the majority of home buyers do not care to pay for a 2nd home inspection, generally speaking, a walk-through prior to closing and collecting receipts for the work performed will insure compliance of the addendum. This issue arose: who pays for the inspection, and who is now the inspector’s client?

Another problem to consider is this:  the lenders are now telling buyers they want a “sign off” on the repairs, a statement of satisfaction with the work performed, well in advance of our contractual opportunity to complete our  “…within  48 hours prior to closing…” examination of the property. Generally about 5 days prior to closing so the paperwork can be processed in time for the appointed closing date.  Moving is a busy time, and most sellers wait until the last minute to complete repairs, especially if the luxury of a few days of occupancy after closing is negotiated into the contract.  We need to know that this is a possibility, and amend the wording of our purchase contract and / or addendum, to insure the buyers can comfortably sign off on repairs that they have had the opportunity to inspect. In other words: Sellers be ready because my buyers and I are coming over sooner!

Not to be an alarmist, but I am concerned a bit that if underwriters or loan processors 4 states away review an inspection report, and the agreement between buyer and seller on certain repairs, then decide they don’t like the agreement made between buyer and seller, are they now opening up the opportunity to insert their opinion on the resolution?  I don’t know. That is a little scary to me.  If your eyes are rolling at me right now, I understand. But loan processing is a very different scenario than it has been in the past.  I’ve had this discussion with agents and loan officers who all wonder if this is a passing fad, or harbinger of even more changes to come. 

Personally, I think much of this issue could be resolved by sellers taking the bull by the horns and just getting their homes in order prior to putting them on the market.  Make sure the GFCI plugs are where they need to be. Have a fireplace? Get it cleaned and inspected. Make sure it’s been deemed safe to use by a pro. Clean the gutters and tighten the wobbly ceiling fans. I know. Those are not “material defects”, but trust me on this one: they will be on the report.  Have the HVAC cleaned and inspected. It will show up on the report if you don’t have receipts to show it’s been done.

Do you have a list of things to do prior to closing? Please complete those items ASAP.  Not all buyers have their “backs against the wall” and will be certainly in a position to delay closing until they are satisfied that all work has been completed as contractually agreed.  A delay in closing may not be in your best interest either, so fix those windows, and clean those gutters because we are coming over to re-inspect!

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

Our "leaf lawn"

Did you see that gorgeous full moon last night?  It was a beautiful sight.  I love the chilly nights and cool days.  The leaves are everywhere! I have to confess:  We don’t do a great job of raking at our house. Never have and probably never will. We just like the look of the scattered leaves. I am glad to see that several of our neighbors do too.  We aren’t the only house on the block with a “leaf lawn”.

Are you ready to take the time to look at year to date numbers? Let’s see how this year, through October 31, 2009, compares with the last few years, back to 2005.  These stats are, of course, from The Greater Cincinnati Multiple Listing Service. January 1 – October 31, single family closed sales, no auctions. The stats include the Hamilton, Clermont, Butler and Warren Counties.

                                                             January 1 – October 31 

See any trends here?  So far this year, closed single family dwelling sales are 394 units down from last year, but a whopping 5,476 from the 2005 high.  The list to sale ratio continued dropped with a “thud”, as buyers drove hard bargains. Combine the buyer’s “upper hand” approach to negotiations with sellers who are still over-pricing, and the L/S ratio widen.   The back story on these numbers you don’t see, are the number of homes that had to have 2 or 3 price reductions before a buyer wrote an offer that resulted in a closed sale.

If you want more detailed information about your specific neighborhood or price range, let me know! The RealCincy Group would be glad to prepare your personal report.

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

Back to school in Cincinnati!

“Do you have any lunch money?” “What should I wear tomorrow Mom?”  “ Are my new jeans clean?”

School is back in session and there is a new rhythm to life. The kids’ new clothes are hanging in the closet ready for the cool, brisk fall air. The school buses are out and running, classes are in session and it’s all about the Friday night football.

So how did the summer selling season go here in the Greater Cincinnati market? Well, I’m glad you asked. Overall, the Ohio housing market continues to show signs of improvement. There were signs of stabilization in July, with activity nearly dead on June activity.
Let’s look at this spring and summer selling season for 2009. Butler, Warren, Hamilton and Clermont counties, compared to 2005 – 2008. All information comes from the Greater Cincinnati Multiple Listing Service.

April 1 – August 31 – Single Family Homes – Butler, Warren, Hamilton & Clermont

   Year      # of Sales      Average List Price      Average Sales Price
   2005     10,144            $187,403                                 $182,223
   2006        9,868           $189,233                                 $183,643
   2007        8,821           $190,810                                 $183,342
   2008        7,320           $183,007                                 $174,375
   2009        7,174           $175,819                                 $165,954
Conclusions:  The $8000 tax credit combined with low interest rates, plentiful home options and more than enough “fixer-uppers” spurred the market forward.  You can see the average list price was down over $7000. There were deals to be had as the average sales price dropped over $8,400 from the same time period last year.  Sales noted as “distressed” claimed 25% of the summer single family market, or 1787 homes of the 7,174.

From home shopping with buyers recently, in several areas of town, I can tell you this: I have observed that prices have begun to stabilize, and as I‘ve been saying, “The good ones will sell.”  Unfortunately, too many Mason home sellers in the $300k – $400k range are terribly overpriced. Too cluttered. Too personalized. Too high. Homes in the Oakley, Hyde Park, and Mt. Lookout area in and around the $200k price range are flying off the shelf. It is definitely NOT a buyer’s market in all areas of town or in all price points.   Do you own a good starter home in Union Township?? Consider it sold.

The housing inventory is a little picked over, so if you have a nicely decorated and staged, well priced, well maintained home, now just might be a good time to go on the market. Warning: Don’t try to push up the price! We aren’t out of the woods yet, but there are ready willing and able buyers.

Would you like detailed information about your neighborhood? Let the RealCincy Group know and we would be happy to prepare a Right Price Analysis for your home.

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

Let’s concentrate on the combined Butler, Warren, Hamilton and Clermont county area market stats.  If you want specific stats about your school district or town, just let me know. I would be glad to provide that information to you!

Now, let’s look at this spring and summer selling season to date 2009, compared to 2005 – 2008. All information comes from the Greater Cincinnati Multiple Listing Service.

Stats:      2005 – 2009, to Date.   April 1 – July 31.

   Year      # of Sales      Average List Price      Average Sales Price

   2005     10,144            $187,403                                $182,223
   2006        9,868           $189,233                                 $183,643
   2007       8,821            $190,810                                 $183,342
   2008        7,320           $183,007                                $174,375
   2009        6,908           $166,842                                 $157,191

I think it is easy to draw more than a few conclusions with this information. Here are two thoughts:

1- Sellers were still not willing to accept that home prices were falling, as evidenced by the drop in average sales price in 2007, but a rise in average list price.
2 – The gap between list to sales price continued to widen, 2007 to present, as more distressed properties enter the market, pulling down overall home prices and averages.

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

•  Check out the Party at Sawyer Point. Wednesdays –Tonight, July 1, it’s Red, White & Rock Night, with Prizoner. July 15th,  It’s Reggae Night with Super-Massive.

• July 3 – Head up to Mason, Corwin Nixon Park. Huey Lewis and the News
• July 3 – All Star Comedy Tour – P & G Hall, at the Aronoff Center
 
• July 6 – Hear Counting Crows a the PNC Pavilion. Also at the PNC Pavilion this month:
        July 8 – Stone Temple Pilots….I can never get enough “Spoon Man”. A great song to run to!
        July 21 – Pull out the black leather, it’s Judas Priest.
        July 28 – A little too much metal?…then how about Jackson Browne
• July 8 – I have to see this again! The Musical of Musicals at the Showboat Majestic. If you like an intimate theatre setting where you feel like you can just reach out and be part of the show, you have to go to the Showboat Majestic. This great production will be a wonderful introduction to the fun of the Majestic!
• July 10 -12 – St. Rita Fest at 1720 Glendale-Milford. One of this area’s most popular fund-raising festivals. Come on out! A good time for a good cause!
The following events don’t even begin to tell you all there is to do at Jungle Jim’s, the Foodie’s Paradise! Check this out:
July 4 – John Sebastian in concert! Formerly of Lovin’ Spoonful, but better known by an entire generation as the guy that sang “Welcome  Back”, as in Welcome Back Kotter.
July 11 – Wine tasting & Celebration: Benefiting the Shayne Graham Foundation. VIP Reception at 6 with Food, Music & Celebrity Guests
July 24 – Have you been to DaVeed’s in Mt Adams? NO! You must go! It’s “special occasion” prices, but truly one of the most outstanding meals I’ve ever had.  David Cook, the chef with an impressive history in Greater Cincinnati culinary circles, will guest chef!
Be sure to check out http://www.junglejims.comfor more information, times, reservations and costs.

Everyone loves summer food!

There is ALWAYS something happening at Jungle Jims!

• July 14 – Broadway Across America presents “Mamma Mia!” at the P & G Hall, Aronoff Center. Go ahead, belt out  “Dancing Queen”. You know you want to!
• July 16 – Live at the Levee, with the Menus. Newport on the Levee
• Pack up the Family and head to a Reds Game. Buy the $5 “Cheap Seats” for an economical night out. There isn’t a bad seat in the place! Check out their schedule here
• July 18 – Head to a Dive-in Movie at the Beach Waterpark. “Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa” is showing
• July 18 – Can’t make it to the Beach? No problem….try the Saturday Night at the Movies on Fountain Sq. “Free Willy’ & “Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events” will be playing
• July 22, 24 & 26 – Ready for a little culture after splashing in the pool and hanging out at the movies? Try the opera “Carmen”, at Music Hall
• You’ll find Fourth of July events and fireworks around town here. Get the lawn chairs and soft drinks….it’s time for the show! Check out the list here, and enjoy!

Red,White & Boom!

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

When gold coins were plentiful, the princess was loved by the people. After the darkness appeared, some would even want to literally argue, challenging her to a duel, about why their castle was special, and how it had escaped the plague on the land. “But I’m next to a park” shouted one! “But I’ve just drained the swamp!” yelled the other. “Could you not see that I’ve painted the Great Hall blue, the master suite purple, and shined all the suits of armor?!” raged the next.

After the darkness appeared over the faraway land, some people decided to not sell, but perhaps re-finance their castle. Maybe take cash equity out of the castle, and dig a bigger moat or pay down some credit cards. Perhaps finance a trip to another far away land: Acapulco or the Grand Cayman Islands for instance.

If we are going to re-finance, we’re going to need an appraiser. If we have an appraiser, we have an opinion of value. The key word here is “opinion”.  I’m not here to suggest that we send the appraisers to the stockade.  Not even close. I successfully work closely with an appraisal group to assist me with our Serious Seller Program. Now, that being said, let the story telling continue.

A couple of weeks ago, someone I know gave me a copy of an appraisal, now about 6 months old.  If you can remember back with me, to January 2009, the Greater Cincinnati real estate market wasn’t exactly stellar, and the MLS stats that I posted outlining 2008 final numbers spoke to that point. As the market has continued to remain low these last 6 months, it’s possible that the future reporting will show that it was better then, than it is today!

I would love to be able to share the entire contents of this book of fiction, um, professional appraisal, but ya’ know that’s not going to happen. I will however, continue with the “fairy tale” aspect of this story, by sharing a couple of key thoughts. This was a well intentioned appraisal, I’m sure. However, the mistakes made, and the storybook effect of this tale of fiction disguised as an expert appraisal, has yet another homeowner thinking her castle may be worth a few thousand more than it is.

The point of the appraisal was, as you’ve probably gathered, for a re-finance.  The home is served by a school district with an “Excellent” rating, per the Ohio Department of Education. That school district had 207 sales in July 2008 – January 2009. In the same time period, one year prior, July 2007 – January 2008, there had been 236 sales.  I know you did the math: 29 fewer sales
Now, check out this information:
2006 – 504 Sales. Median List Price: $215,000 Median Sales Price: $209,250
2007 – 419 Sales. Median List Price: $205,000 Median Sales Price: $195,000
2008 – 387 Sales. Median List Price: $189,900 Median Sales Price: $184,500

Here’s how the fairy tale continues: this appraisal was performed the first week of January 2009, thus the appraiser would have concentrated on the 6 months prior to the report.  The appraiser would have access to the above information; however, this is not the type of sales history an individual appraiser will take the time to create or consider for one homeowner. The appraiser commented that this area had “…stable to modestly increasing property values.” I don’t know about that. What do you think?  $184,500 SOUNDS like quite a bit less to me than $195,000. A $10k drop in median value for one of Greater Cincinnati’s most popular areas in one year’s time! That’s information I might like to have if I’m selling a home, or re-financing and looking for true market value, (not pumped up re-fi value)  now that the dark cloud of slow sales has moved over the land.

Let’s consider something else in the appraisal that will cause even the sturdiest gargoyle to rock off its base. Under the “Additional Listings” section of the report, the appraiser voluntarily and arbitrarily decided to discuss a home that was being offered “for sale”, in “active” status in MLS, far above the most probable sales price, or market value, of the subject property. This home was entered into the report as an “oh, by the way” commentary. Just what did the appraiser say? Glad you asked. She noted that while “…this is not to be considered a comparable, due to the fact that it does not meet the requirements of a comparable, which is a closed sale. This listing exhibits the strength of the market in the area”.  In my book, 32 fewer sales than the year before, with a $10,000 drop in median price doesn’t sound too strong…but what do I know?   That “non-comp”  home was on the market, the day of the appraisal, January 6, 2009 at $183,500. It had first entered the market priced at $187,500. Currently, the home is still being marketed, 301 days later, and reduced to $177,500.

In some wierd way, I guess you can say the this home “…exhibits the strength of the market…” I just don’t think that was the twist the appraiser was going for.

In the meantime, there is a homeowner who has been given some “false hope” about the reality of the real estate market. Unfortunately, she has put her faith in this appraisal that is riddled with inaccuracies. I think I know a princess whose frock is about to get dirty.

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

• Thomas & Friends – June 10 & 11, Bank of Kentucky Center, NKU
• Riverbend Music Center has a great line up for June:
June 4 – Coldplay, June 12 – Garrison Keillor’s Prairie Home Companion, June 16 – Dave Matthews Band, June 19 – Brad Paisley, June 20 – 311, and June 27 – Oh yea, they’re back! It’s The New Kids on The Block.

• Milford Ohio Kicks off the Summer with the 47th Annual Frontier Days! June 4 – 7. The parade starts at 6:30 on Thursday June 4th. Enjoy Food, Games, Lawn Mower Races, Karaoke Contest and the Big Chicken Dinner. Check out the official Frontier Days site for more information!

• At the PNC Pavilion at Riverbend The Offspring play June 24
• Broadway Across America Presents “A Chorus Line” at the Aronoff Center through June 7
 
• Cincinnati Symphony Orchestra – June 18, Music Hall. Featuring the Mormon Tabernacle Choir
• Playhouse in the Park presents “Marry Me a Little” – Through June 14. In the Thompson Shelter house.  Songs by Stephen Sondheim. “What can you do on a Saturday night alone?” These and other meaningful questions answered comically and musically here!
• There is ALWAYS something happening at Jungle Jims! The following events aren’t necessarily “kid friendly”, but mom & dad need an afternoon off too!  Here are few things to check out:
June 19, 7 – 10 pm it’s Beerfest!  What true Cincinnatian, or soon to be Cincinnatian, would pass on the “native” refreshment?
June 13, France vs. USA. Wine Tasting 1 – 3 p.m.
June 20, “Rhone Style” Wine Tasting 1 – 3 p.m.
June 27, The “Not to Miss” Event….Battle of the Bands Wine Tasting Event! Ten of the Top Suppliers will be on Hand Vying for Your Vote as “The Best”
Be sure to check out www.junglejims.com for more information, times, reservations and costs.

• Kevin Pollack – June 18 & 20 Special Engagement! Funny Bone Comedy Club. Newport on the Levee
• “Junk in the Trunk” Sale in Lebanon. June 6. Interfaith Hospitality Network of Warren County Hosts at Lebanon Jr. High. Call 934-5250 for more information
• Pack up the Family and head to a Reds Game. Buy the $5 “Cheap Seats” for an economical night out. There isn’t a bad seat in the place! June 5 – 7 the Reds hot the Chicago Cubs. June 16 – 21, there’s a 6 day home stretch. The Reds host the Atlanta Braves & the Chicago White Socks. Let’s see if they can stay in the run for 1st place!
• June is a big month for church and school festival fundraisers. Link to Local12.com for a complete list.

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com