New Numbers for a New Year!

Hello all!  It’s been crazy- busy at our home, and I’m sure at yours too.  I hate to be a cliché and write about looking back, and looking forward, but hey, it’s January of a new year. What can I say?

Ok. I promise.  I’ll keep my philosophical ranting, and resolution making and breaking discussions, off this page, and stick to some good old fashioned MLS market data to keep you up to date.

The following data is for single family homes only, Butler, Warren, Hamilton, and Clermont County. 

This data is compiled from The Greater Cincinnati Multiple Listing Service, as of about 10:30 a.m. or so today.
Once again, a “Distressed Property” is a bank owned or government owned foreclosed on property, or a property still owned by a consumer, but requiring bank approval for a “short sale”.

Obviously, the numbers speak to the issues we have all experienced in the local real estate market.  I want to point out that, while indeed, there was an explosion of distressed properties for sale over the last few years, the MLS wasn’t as strict or accurate “pre-market correction” as it is currently.  In other words, we didn’t keep track as well of short sales.  Many real estate agents didn’t even know what a short sale was until the last couple of years.  I remember a conversation in early 2007 with 25 year veteran about my fear that we would be seeing more and more short sales in the coming years.  Her response…”what’s a short sale?”  So there you have it.

Here are some current numbers:

2010 To Date as of 10:30 a.m. January 4, 2010

One thing that jumped out at me here is that while the average list price in the 4 main counties of Greater Cincinnati is $240,144, the average list price of the home under contract, waiting to close, is significantly lower: $157,854.  That tells me that the lower priced “bargains” continue to fuel this market.  It will be interesting, of course, to see what this next year brings.  The good news is that if this is your snapshot in time to be entering the real estate market as a buyer, there is still plenty of good reason to do so: low interest rates, tax credits, good inventory, and you still have the upper hand in most markets and price points.

Sellers:  don’t be discouraged. If this is your snapshot in time to put your home on the market,  just be sure to hire the team of agents with a proven track record, good marketing ideas, and a head for numbers ( hint, hint).  Priced well to be the “next best value”, your home will sell.    The RealCincy Group is here to offer advice and keep you up to date on the competition. In Ohio & Kentucky, we can help.  With our OUTSTANDING marketing and trend watching, we’ll get your home sold

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

Our "leaf lawn"

Did you see that gorgeous full moon last night?  It was a beautiful sight.  I love the chilly nights and cool days.  The leaves are everywhere! I have to confess:  We don’t do a great job of raking at our house. Never have and probably never will. We just like the look of the scattered leaves. I am glad to see that several of our neighbors do too.  We aren’t the only house on the block with a “leaf lawn”.

Are you ready to take the time to look at year to date numbers? Let’s see how this year, through October 31, 2009, compares with the last few years, back to 2005.  These stats are, of course, from The Greater Cincinnati Multiple Listing Service. January 1 – October 31, single family closed sales, no auctions. The stats include the Hamilton, Clermont, Butler and Warren Counties.

                                                             January 1 – October 31 

See any trends here?  So far this year, closed single family dwelling sales are 394 units down from last year, but a whopping 5,476 from the 2005 high.  The list to sale ratio continued dropped with a “thud”, as buyers drove hard bargains. Combine the buyer’s “upper hand” approach to negotiations with sellers who are still over-pricing, and the L/S ratio widen.   The back story on these numbers you don’t see, are the number of homes that had to have 2 or 3 price reductions before a buyer wrote an offer that resulted in a closed sale.

If you want more detailed information about your specific neighborhood or price range, let me know! The RealCincy Group would be glad to prepare your personal report.

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

Do you want to know what has been happening to real estate in Clifton Gas Light? If so, this is the report for you!

My name is Bryan Casteel and I live in the Clifton area and I am a real estate agent with RE/MAX Unlimited. Along with my Marketing Manager at my real estate team, The RealCincy Group, we just finished analyzing all the sales from the Greater Cincinnati MLS that have occurred in the Clifton Gas Light District since 1993 (almost 17 years of sales!).

We looked at prices trends, days on market, foreclosures and more. Out of this effort, we have produced the Clifton Real Estate Report.

With this report, you will learn:

• What has happened to prices of homes in Clifton Gas Light over the last 17 years
• How home sales have been affected by the foreclosure market
• What the price trends are for different sizes of homes (broken down by number of bedrooms)
• Why certain homes are not selling and other homes are “flying off the shelf”
• Are we “at the bottom” or is there more “pain” to be felt?

We have also included a whole section on what you can do to protect your home’s equity when selling in this difficult market.

We have both worked very hard to pull this information together. It is our hope that you will find this a valuable insight into the current market and where things may be heading in the future. We will continue to update this report on a regular basis to keep you informed.

This report is free for anyone, request your copy today!
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More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

Sometimes it is good to be ahead of a bad curve. The good news is the Cincinnati area is ahead of the national averages in returning to historical price ranges (see our earlier post).

We took the S&P/Case Shiller Home price index from 1987 to 2009 and adjusted it for inflation. You will notice that before the bubble, home prices were in a defined historic range. The housing bubble that began around 1999 blew this historic price range away.

We expect the national index to go below the historic price range before returning to normal pricing levels. The index released yesterday shows national home prices are still 10% to 11% above the expected pre-bubble price ranges when adjusted for inflation and it is not out of the realm of possibility to have the national index drop 10% to 15% below the historic price range.

So, where will prices end up? No one knows, but we can see the potential for another 20% to 25% drop before prices work their way back up to the historic price levels.

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

Click Graph to Enlarge

The historical price range of $163,000 to $171,000 was broken by the housing bubble that started in the late 1990s. The housing bubble peaked in 2005 when the average inflation adjusted price of a single family home was over $205,000.

2008 marked the official end to housing bubble prices in Cincinnati when prices returned to their historical range. In 2008, the average price of a single family home was $170,082.

Unfortunately, after a market bubble, prices often drop well below their historic price range before returning to normal levels over time – a classic bottoming process. So far this year, the average price of a single family home sold in the Cincinnati area tumbled 18.7% to $138,221. Current prices are 15% below the historical price range – a clear sign of a bottoming process.

This is a fantastic market to buy a home and properly priced homes are selling quickly. But it can be difficult to determine if a home is appropriately priced. Both buyers and sellers should be sure they use a full time professional real estate agent who understands the current market’s trends and can provide them with detailed pricing data.

Our team will also be releasing detail real estate reports on Mason, Eastgate and Clifton later this week. These reports will take a detail look at these real estate markets.

Cincinnati home prices from the MLS of Greater Cincinnati. Prices are for Warren, Hamilton, Clermont and Butler counties.

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

To help get you comfortable with the Greater Cincinnati and Northern Kentucky area, The RealCincy Group with RE/MAX Unlimited would like to offer to you the latest copy of The Insider’s Guide to Cincinnati. This up to date, 400 + page book is full of really good information about the area that other incoming buyers have found extremely helpful! You’ll find information about shopping, local attractions, health care, senior services, and nightlife, where to find the libraries, tips on getting around town, and yes, plenty more. Go to our home page and place your secure order. IT’S FREE! And No Worries! No one but The RealCincy Group will see your information.

It’s a well known that most homebuyers, about 90%, begin their home search on the internet. Many homebuyers also find their trusted real estate advisor on the internet too. That number just keeps growing as time goes on! We want you to be comfortable with selecting the members of The RealCincy Group to assist you with your move to our city. Take the time to look through this website. Read the articles on Home Buying, Home Selling, Market Information, and see what we have to say about different areas around town. Use the links to read about what the city, and different suburbs, have to offer. You’ll get to know us as you read the articles. We can talk, in person, about your specific needs, the type of homes you prefer, whether you like a more urban or suburban setting, and anything else that concerns you.

Schools are a priority to many parents moving into the area. Understand that we want to be helpful. We can provide sources of information to you, so that you, as a parent, can decide if one system or another is “good” for your child.

You also probably want to make sure that we have experience taking care of incoming, relocation buyers. We have been trusted to work with Greater Cincinnati and N. Kentucky employers, large and small.

• Kroger • Procter & Gamble • Western & Southern Life Insurance • General Electric • Ford • Lens Crafter • Hill-Rom • Delta Airlines • Chiquita

This is just the start of a long, long list of companies that will read as a “Who’s Who” of Cincinnati employers. We’ve worked with Cendant Relocation, Wiechert Relocation, Sirva Relocation, Prudential, and Lexicon Relocation too. Don’t see your company here? That’s ok. We can meet or exceed ANY criteria that they would require. YOU DO have the right to request our services. We have never, ever, had requests for any of us denied.

Wouldn’t it be nice if you could just move the home you love here? Put it on a truck and bring it with you? Probably not going to happen right? So, it’s time to see what Cincinnati homes for sale look like.

You found our Real Estate search site to look for homes on your own at accesscincymls.com. That’s good….But we can do better than that!!  We can create your own personal “Market Monitor”, direct from the Greater Cincinnati or Northern Kentucky Multiple Listing Service that will show you all homes in the price range and areas of town that might interest you. You will have good, detailed information on each of the homes, including photos and a mapping function. The system will alert you via email when new listings enter the market, or if there are any price reductions. You can save the homes you like, and may want to tour. You can reject the homes you don’t like. Interesting???  You bet!  If a home happens to go under contract, once the sale is complete, you get to see the final sales price immediately! Just like we do! You will be a VERY  informed home buyer. Ready to get started? Give us a call, or send an email. We can talk about what type of home you may be looking for, and create your personal “Market Monitor”.

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

So many potential buyers will delay their dreams!
• Worried that they will commit costly errors that cause them to over pay for the home they want.
• Worried about making a final decision. Those buyers put at risk loosing their home to another buyer, while they are “still thinking”. Lost to a buyer that was prepared and ready to make a decision when he viewed the right home.
• Worried about making a poor, regretful decision by selecting the wrong home for their needs and budget.

Let’s take a look at Ten Traps and Trips of the home buying process. Let’s get educated on the terms and procedures, and take the mystery out of the process.  You’ll cut costs, and feel confident moving forward when you’ve found “the one”!

1. Pulling Numbers From Air – What’s a good price to offer? Where should you start the bidding on the home you want?  Is the seller “dreaming” with the asking price, or does it the price represent a seller that has priced well for the current market?  If you haven’t looked at the other homes on the market, priced similarly, you won’t recognize a good price when you see it. That’s good information. Next, you need to see what similar homes have sold for in the recent past. Not two years ago, not last year…..recently.  If there are no recent “apples to apples” comparison, look at last years’s price, and adjust to the current market. Without obtaining the knowledge of “market value”, you could easily offer too much, or fail to make a competitive offer, an offer too low, on a home that represents an excellent value!!
2. Right House, Wrong Reason – So, what type of home do you want? Seems like a simple question doesn’t it? The answer can be a bit more complicated than you think. Many buyers find themselves overwhelmed by the options, and swept up in the excitement. Not thinking this through can push you into owning a home too far from the grandparents, or with an hour commute to the office. A fantastic kitchen with an hour drive to the office may or may not be worth it in the long run. Only you can decide.   Remember, no home is perfect, and nearly everyone ends up with some compromises. That’s fine. But take the time to analyze the “must haves”, and “wants” of your new home. That way, you’ll know it when you see it.
3. Owner’s Policy of Title Insurance – Take the time to explore the option of obtaining an Owner’s Policy of Title Insurance. Different states, and different areas within an individual state, can vary on who, by “regional norm” pays for an Owner’s Policy to a buyer.  Nevertheless, as a homeowner, you need to know that, while generally rare, problems with title from before you owned the home can come to the surface later.  Lost heirs, forgeries, misfiled documents and other mistakes can cost you a bundle later as you fight to maintain control of ownership of your home. The cost, payable at closing, is a one time fee, and can save you headaches, heartbreak, and money later, if needed.
4. Inspect, and Inspect Again – Sellers are required to disclose information about the home for the potential buyer to review. But you have to wonder if everything relevant makes it on to the disclosure. Sellers don’t mean to be intentionally untruthful, but, they can forget.  Many homeowners just get used to, or learn to live with, a defect that they no longer consider a defect, but a “quirk”.  Be sure to hire an independent inspector who will provide you his findings in writing. Keeping in mind that no home is perfect, your inspector should be qualified to point out to you the difference between problems that need corrected, and maintenance chores for the “honey-do” list that you can tend to after you own the home. Then, after any requested repairs are made, re-inspect, prior to closing. Ask your agent how to ensure that you can review the home, prior to closing, to insure that the repairs are made, professionally, and in a “workmanship like manner”. Depending on the items needing attention, this may be as simple as scheduling a visit a couple of days before closing, or sending the inspector or other professional to the home to verify the work has been performed properly. You can save yourself a bundle of headaches with this one piece of advice.
5. Mortgage Pre-Approval. An Absolute Must – Don’t even look at homes until you have a loan pre-approval. Realtors enjoy the process of taking “ready to go” buyers to homes. Home shopping can be enjoyable.  But, if you don’t have a loan in place, you can’t enjoy the process, knowing that you may or may not qualify for “the one” when you see it. Shopping with a loan in place will give you the confidence to move forward when you do find the home of your dreams.
6. Not Getting a Home Warranty- Sellers will often offer a home warranty to provide the buyer of their home peace of mind, should there be any “surprise problems” with appliances or the home’s operating systems for the first year after the title transfer.  Some sellers do not understand the value of meeting a buyer’s request for a warranty.  If the seller doesn’t want to provide a warranty, the buyer can most certainly buy it themselves. Things break, and even the best home inspector can’t make predictions on when an appliance may quit. Warranty plans and coverage vary, but generally speaking there is a $50 – $100 deductible per occurrence and the warranties can cost approximately $400 – $500. The deductible is certainly less than replacing a hot water heater or dishwasher that worked fine at closing,  then breaks a couple of months after buying the home. Warranties can be renewed yearly.
7. Missing the Contract Deadlines – As a buyer, you need to be aware of the contract dates and deadlines.  Be sure to provide your proof of pre-approval and loan commitment on time. Be sure to have your home inspection, and requests for repair to the seller, delivered on schedule. Failing to do so could cost you money and your home by voiding the contract.
8. Survey Issues – As part of your purchase contract, be sure that there is a provision for, at minimum, a lender’s survey.  This survey will ensure that there are no encroachments on “your” new property.  Larger pieces of land, unmarked, need a marked survey so that you know exactly where to find the boundaries. Be sure you know where your lot ends, and the neighbor’s begin.
9. Uncover the “Hidden Costs” of your loan – A good mortgage consultant will go over all the costs of your loan….large and small. Your lender will provide you with a Good Faith Estimate, outlining all the costs associated with the closing process.  Be sure to review the costs, and make sure no unexplained and unexpected fees are sneaking into your settlement costs.  Ask questions if you don’t know why you are paying a “disbursement charge” or what “EPA Endorsement” means. There is a good reason, but it’s ok to ask if you don’t know why.
10. Closings are Final. Know What you are Signing – During the closing, the title company representative or attorney conducting the closing will review the paperwork with you. Be sure to obtain a copy of all documents that you sign. At closing, be sure to review the documents in front of you, insuring that what you are signing is in line with your understanding of your loan (FHA, Conventional, Fixed, or Adjustable Rate) and your quoted interest rate.  Your mortgage consultant should be available to answer any questions. At minimum, she should be a phone call away. You should receive your settlement statement to review 24 hours prior to closing. You and your realtor should each review the statement for accuracy.

Now, you’re ready to go find your dream home!

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

“Too much time on her hands” “Needs to get a  life” “Nostradamus of Real Estate” “Real Estate Genius”
Ok, the first two are definitely correct. I just like the last two. Anyway, I tried to tell ya’. Home prices are coming down. Still.

The members of The RealCincy Group have spent copious amounts  of time over  the last 2 – 3 years, meeting with sellers, and attempting to explain why the sellers need to price competitively, and skip the “let’s just try” angle if they are serious. We have counseled and consoled, while explaining global economics, stock market volatility, mortgage backed securities, inflated second mortgage appraisals. Wow…we ARE boring. Nevertheless, home sellers are just having a hard time understanding that the price that we suggest will net them a quicker sale, and will save them money in the long run.  

It has taken a banking “thump on the head”, called the “Global Credit Crisis” to get home sellers to understand that the home selling market is tight…..for the neighbors.  Soon to be released this month, is a report from Zillow’s Q3 Real Estate Market Report.  This report states that 49% of home owners believe that their own home’s value has increased, or at least stayed the same, over this last year! Really?? Still?

49% of homeowners have a bad, serious case of “Not My House” Syndrome.

Nationally, over 74% of homes have decreased in value.  Right here in Greater Cincinnati, I just shared with you the other day that there was a $12,162 drop in average sales price in the last 6 months, from this same time last year, with 1378 fewer homes sold.  That information was right out of the Greater Cincinnati Multiple Listing Service.

One couple I met with about 4 months ago had a sad, serious case of “Not My House” Syndrome. Everything about the listing appointment was stellar until the “ So, about what do you think we will sell for?” question was put out there. Ok, I’ve done this before. I have numbers, pretty pictures, stats, and references. I know what I’m doing. But Whew! Did the tone of that meeting drastically change!

Nice, kind people, but they got “the syndrome” bad. They listed, 4 months ago, $50,000 over what I suggested. Nine price drops later (fire sale anyone?),  they just hit a listing price lower than what I had suggested that they would anticipate selling. Ouch. Now, I don’t have a crystal ball, but experience tells me that  if they had just priced closer to that price in the first place, they wouldn’t be offering a buyer agent vacation package, and taking a whipping on the sales price too.

I confess. I do like to be “right”. Ask Randy, poor thing.  It’s part of my first born, type A- personality. But I really do care about people and their investment too. I just hate seeing people taking a beating like this because of poor advice. We are where we are, economically. We can’t change this. But we can minimize the damage.

“Ok. So what’s the point?”  I’m getting there.  In this market, you can not afford to have “Not My House” Syndrome.  It’s time to swallow the cure. Here is the cure: You need to ask questions. Review recent sales. Even sales from one year ago need to be looked at carefully. Objectively look at how the numbers are trending. You are not in the real estate business with access to the daily numbers so you don’t have to be an expert. But your agent does. Go with someone a little “nerd-y” that studies those numbers, and can interpret the data for you.

You probably have good memories of your life in your home. Spoiler alert! That has zero value to the next buyer. However, by staging your home, and presenting your home to market in amazing condition, you do tell the potential buyers that you have loved and cared for your home. That does have value!  Ask your agent how he or she generates buyers. Most agents do not have a clear plan for finding the precious few buyers available. I’m bringing it up, so you know we do.

When it’s time to discuss the anticipated sales price range, and suggested list price, does your agent wiggle in her chair? Or does your agent have a clear picture of the road ahead, and is ready to show you what you need to know to make a good pricing decision? Whether it’s us, or someone else, don’t just go with the highest “bidder”, or the agent that says “sure, we’ll try your price”. That will cost you money.

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

Try as you may, we know it’s difficult to take away the emotion, and insert the practical. That is where choosing a good, experienced realtor, whose advice you will carefully consider, will save you thousands.

Let’s talk for a minute about the massive savings you may reap by having a pre-listing home inspection. We recommend it to all sellers, and strangely enough, no one has ever followed through with that advice!! The common thought is that a buyer will have their own inspections, and we’ll just deal with “whatever” at that time.

This is a true and recent story.  Indulge me for a minute, by letting me tell you about a seller that probably lost several thousand dollars on a home that was listed for $274,900.

This summer, I represented a family shopping in Anderson Township, in the $225,000 – $280,000 price range. We decide on a beautifully kept home, list price $274,900.  The listing agent did a great job of counseling the sellers on listing price. In the market we all miss, pre 2006, this home would easily be a $290,000’s home.

We selected this home, in part, because of the gorgeous, remodeled kitchen, with stainless steel appliances, new cabinets, and quartz countertops. The yard is manicured to perfection. The baths are updated, and the care the homeowners gave to the 31 year old home during the 20 years they occupied the home is evident. 

We struck our best deal, at $263,000. The sellers indicated that, at this price, and due to the maintenance and updating that they performed over the last 20 years, this was as close to “as is” as they were willing to go. No “nickel and dime” inspection requests. Agreed!  My buyers are quite reasonable, and very happy with this price. The home inspection will be for material defects only (which really is the spirit and intent of inspections, but we’ll talk more about that later)

Anyway, long story shortened, the 14 year old roof is shot, per the inspector. This is verified by two independent roofers that said that despite the stated age of 14 years, the shingles were not installed with proper ventilation. Indeed, the shingles are just “cooking” on the roof. To add salt to the wound, the radon report was also high.

So…..a very reasonable and kind (on my buyer’s part) negotiated $1800 price reduction to $ $261,200 and a $700 radon reduction bill later, the sellers lost another $2500. 

If the sellers had preformed a pre-listing inspection, they would have known about the roof and radon. They could have replaced the roof and mitigated the radon. At that point, while they may have spent about $7000 – $8000 that they may not have wanted to spend prior to selling the home, they could have more firmly and reasonably held to a $275,000 sales price. Why?  A couple of reasons:  The roof is brand new, and the buyer would not have to spend his money on a radon test, because it was already complete. There was precious little left to discuss as a result of the inspection, so…..a TRUE $275,000 home.
Now, while this worked out well for my buyers, it didn’t work out so well for the sellers. And, if you are reading this, you are probably considering selling.

Yes, your buyer may have their own inspection. That’s fine. But you will have already negated many of the “nickel and dime” items, and cured any major problems.  The pre-listing inspection, coupled with a good, solid market value list price, will significantly strengthen your position.

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

Let’s take the house that Randy and I call home.  The auditor’s site is correct. The above grade square footage is accurate. They are also allowing a little less than 1/3 of the total finished basement, about 600 square feet, as we have a side walkout. The lot size is correct. The assessed value, in ratio to current market value, appears valid.

However, a site accessed from Greater Cincinnati Multiple Listing Service, called Realist, used by many agents in the area, including yours truly, is incorrect. It has the square footage listed correctly, but the lot size is inaccurate. We have just over a 1/2 acre lot, and Realist states that we have a .25 acre lot. 

If our home were on the market, and a buyer that didn’t know any better went by zillow.com, they would not have the correct square footage information (no finished basement square footage noted) to make a decent evaluation.   To complicate matters, they have our home in the wrong school district……not even close.
 Poor information at best!

If you formed an offer on our home, per www.zillow.com  information, I would have to run you off my front sidewalk!

Now, on the other hand, if you recently visited www.realtor.com, then to Find Home Values, and brought us an offer based on their valuation….well, you have yourself a deal!!!  Randy and I can be moved by the end of the month!!
 
There was a $40,000 difference in those two sites alone. Personally, I prefered the www.realtor.com numbers, but I have to confess, as a full time working agent, I knew that “there ain’t no way” my home was worth that much. 2005 yes, 2008 no.

So, all that being said, who do you trust?
Do you trust a web site that is only as good as the information entered by humans, filled with human errors?   A web site that doesn’t know that all the lots in that subdivision are ½ acre minimum, so this stated .25 acre is incorrect? A web site that doesn’t know that when the buyers had this home built, they added a two foot bump, so this square foot information is incorrect? A web site that  did not step foot inside these 5 comps, or  last week drove out of town buyers to homes that are priced exactly the same as yours, and know what buyers expect for a $200,000, $350,000, or $500,000 home?  

If you want an honest and complete Home Evaluation, give me a call or send me an email at jcox@realcincy.com. Randy can help you in Kentucky. rhibbard@realcincy.com

Our promise: we may not always tell you what you want to hear, but we will tell you what you need to know!

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com