New Numbers for a New Year!

Hello all!  It’s been crazy- busy at our home, and I’m sure at yours too.  I hate to be a cliché and write about looking back, and looking forward, but hey, it’s January of a new year. What can I say?

Ok. I promise.  I’ll keep my philosophical ranting, and resolution making and breaking discussions, off this page, and stick to some good old fashioned MLS market data to keep you up to date.

The following data is for single family homes only, Butler, Warren, Hamilton, and Clermont County. 

This data is compiled from The Greater Cincinnati Multiple Listing Service, as of about 10:30 a.m. or so today.
Once again, a “Distressed Property” is a bank owned or government owned foreclosed on property, or a property still owned by a consumer, but requiring bank approval for a “short sale”.

Obviously, the numbers speak to the issues we have all experienced in the local real estate market.  I want to point out that, while indeed, there was an explosion of distressed properties for sale over the last few years, the MLS wasn’t as strict or accurate “pre-market correction” as it is currently.  In other words, we didn’t keep track as well of short sales.  Many real estate agents didn’t even know what a short sale was until the last couple of years.  I remember a conversation in early 2007 with 25 year veteran about my fear that we would be seeing more and more short sales in the coming years.  Her response…”what’s a short sale?”  So there you have it.

Here are some current numbers:

2010 To Date as of 10:30 a.m. January 4, 2010

One thing that jumped out at me here is that while the average list price in the 4 main counties of Greater Cincinnati is $240,144, the average list price of the home under contract, waiting to close, is significantly lower: $157,854.  That tells me that the lower priced “bargains” continue to fuel this market.  It will be interesting, of course, to see what this next year brings.  The good news is that if this is your snapshot in time to be entering the real estate market as a buyer, there is still plenty of good reason to do so: low interest rates, tax credits, good inventory, and you still have the upper hand in most markets and price points.

Sellers:  don’t be discouraged. If this is your snapshot in time to put your home on the market,  just be sure to hire the team of agents with a proven track record, good marketing ideas, and a head for numbers ( hint, hint).  Priced well to be the “next best value”, your home will sell.    The RealCincy Group is here to offer advice and keep you up to date on the competition. In Ohio & Kentucky, we can help.  With our OUTSTANDING marketing and trend watching, we’ll get your home sold

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

Stalled Luxury Home Sales

A few months ago I gave you information about the upscale housing market in the Greater Cincinnati area.  Those areas included Butler, Warren, Hamilton and Clermont counties.  We discussed the Jumbo Mortgage Market, and how tight control on the interest rates for the luxury home market may be slowing the housing market, at the “grass roots” level.

I just put together an update with closed sales stats through November 15, 2009.  I thought you might like an update.

Single Family Sales: Butler, Warren, Hamilton and Clermont Counties.
Source: Greater Cincinnati Multiple Listing Service

It’s possible that once the current 23 pending sales do close, that we the “Over $700k+” sales will not come to the anticipated 138 total.  We will just have to see if those homes, in this buyer driven market, that are priced close to the $700,000 list price, do indeed sell over $700,000

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

Our "leaf lawn"

Did you see that gorgeous full moon last night?  It was a beautiful sight.  I love the chilly nights and cool days.  The leaves are everywhere! I have to confess:  We don’t do a great job of raking at our house. Never have and probably never will. We just like the look of the scattered leaves. I am glad to see that several of our neighbors do too.  We aren’t the only house on the block with a “leaf lawn”.

Are you ready to take the time to look at year to date numbers? Let’s see how this year, through October 31, 2009, compares with the last few years, back to 2005.  These stats are, of course, from The Greater Cincinnati Multiple Listing Service. January 1 – October 31, single family closed sales, no auctions. The stats include the Hamilton, Clermont, Butler and Warren Counties.

                                                             January 1 – October 31 

See any trends here?  So far this year, closed single family dwelling sales are 394 units down from last year, but a whopping 5,476 from the 2005 high.  The list to sale ratio continued dropped with a “thud”, as buyers drove hard bargains. Combine the buyer’s “upper hand” approach to negotiations with sellers who are still over-pricing, and the L/S ratio widen.   The back story on these numbers you don’t see, are the number of homes that had to have 2 or 3 price reductions before a buyer wrote an offer that resulted in a closed sale.

If you want more detailed information about your specific neighborhood or price range, let me know! The RealCincy Group would be glad to prepare your personal report.

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

Back to school in Cincinnati!

“Do you have any lunch money?” “What should I wear tomorrow Mom?”  “ Are my new jeans clean?”

School is back in session and there is a new rhythm to life. The kids’ new clothes are hanging in the closet ready for the cool, brisk fall air. The school buses are out and running, classes are in session and it’s all about the Friday night football.

So how did the summer selling season go here in the Greater Cincinnati market? Well, I’m glad you asked. Overall, the Ohio housing market continues to show signs of improvement. There were signs of stabilization in July, with activity nearly dead on June activity.
Let’s look at this spring and summer selling season for 2009. Butler, Warren, Hamilton and Clermont counties, compared to 2005 – 2008. All information comes from the Greater Cincinnati Multiple Listing Service.

April 1 – August 31 – Single Family Homes – Butler, Warren, Hamilton & Clermont

   Year      # of Sales      Average List Price      Average Sales Price
   2005     10,144            $187,403                                 $182,223
   2006        9,868           $189,233                                 $183,643
   2007        8,821           $190,810                                 $183,342
   2008        7,320           $183,007                                 $174,375
   2009        7,174           $175,819                                 $165,954
Conclusions:  The $8000 tax credit combined with low interest rates, plentiful home options and more than enough “fixer-uppers” spurred the market forward.  You can see the average list price was down over $7000. There were deals to be had as the average sales price dropped over $8,400 from the same time period last year.  Sales noted as “distressed” claimed 25% of the summer single family market, or 1787 homes of the 7,174.

From home shopping with buyers recently, in several areas of town, I can tell you this: I have observed that prices have begun to stabilize, and as I‘ve been saying, “The good ones will sell.”  Unfortunately, too many Mason home sellers in the $300k – $400k range are terribly overpriced. Too cluttered. Too personalized. Too high. Homes in the Oakley, Hyde Park, and Mt. Lookout area in and around the $200k price range are flying off the shelf. It is definitely NOT a buyer’s market in all areas of town or in all price points.   Do you own a good starter home in Union Township?? Consider it sold.

The housing inventory is a little picked over, so if you have a nicely decorated and staged, well priced, well maintained home, now just might be a good time to go on the market. Warning: Don’t try to push up the price! We aren’t out of the woods yet, but there are ready willing and able buyers.

Would you like detailed information about your neighborhood? Let the RealCincy Group know and we would be happy to prepare a Right Price Analysis for your home.

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

Let’s concentrate on the combined Butler, Warren, Hamilton and Clermont county area market stats.  If you want specific stats about your school district or town, just let me know. I would be glad to provide that information to you!

Now, let’s look at this spring and summer selling season to date 2009, compared to 2005 – 2008. All information comes from the Greater Cincinnati Multiple Listing Service.

Stats:      2005 – 2009, to Date.   April 1 – July 31.

   Year      # of Sales      Average List Price      Average Sales Price

   2005     10,144            $187,403                                $182,223
   2006        9,868           $189,233                                 $183,643
   2007       8,821            $190,810                                 $183,342
   2008        7,320           $183,007                                $174,375
   2009        6,908           $166,842                                 $157,191

I think it is easy to draw more than a few conclusions with this information. Here are two thoughts:

1- Sellers were still not willing to accept that home prices were falling, as evidenced by the drop in average sales price in 2007, but a rise in average list price.
2 – The gap between list to sales price continued to widen, 2007 to present, as more distressed properties enter the market, pulling down overall home prices and averages.

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

When gold coins were plentiful, the princess was loved by the people. After the darkness appeared, some would even want to literally argue, challenging her to a duel, about why their castle was special, and how it had escaped the plague on the land. “But I’m next to a park” shouted one! “But I’ve just drained the swamp!” yelled the other. “Could you not see that I’ve painted the Great Hall blue, the master suite purple, and shined all the suits of armor?!” raged the next.

After the darkness appeared over the faraway land, some people decided to not sell, but perhaps re-finance their castle. Maybe take cash equity out of the castle, and dig a bigger moat or pay down some credit cards. Perhaps finance a trip to another far away land: Acapulco or the Grand Cayman Islands for instance.

If we are going to re-finance, we’re going to need an appraiser. If we have an appraiser, we have an opinion of value. The key word here is “opinion”.  I’m not here to suggest that we send the appraisers to the stockade.  Not even close. I successfully work closely with an appraisal group to assist me with our Serious Seller Program. Now, that being said, let the story telling continue.

A couple of weeks ago, someone I know gave me a copy of an appraisal, now about 6 months old.  If you can remember back with me, to January 2009, the Greater Cincinnati real estate market wasn’t exactly stellar, and the MLS stats that I posted outlining 2008 final numbers spoke to that point. As the market has continued to remain low these last 6 months, it’s possible that the future reporting will show that it was better then, than it is today!

I would love to be able to share the entire contents of this book of fiction, um, professional appraisal, but ya’ know that’s not going to happen. I will however, continue with the “fairy tale” aspect of this story, by sharing a couple of key thoughts. This was a well intentioned appraisal, I’m sure. However, the mistakes made, and the storybook effect of this tale of fiction disguised as an expert appraisal, has yet another homeowner thinking her castle may be worth a few thousand more than it is.

The point of the appraisal was, as you’ve probably gathered, for a re-finance.  The home is served by a school district with an “Excellent” rating, per the Ohio Department of Education. That school district had 207 sales in July 2008 – January 2009. In the same time period, one year prior, July 2007 – January 2008, there had been 236 sales.  I know you did the math: 29 fewer sales
Now, check out this information:
2006 – 504 Sales. Median List Price: $215,000 Median Sales Price: $209,250
2007 – 419 Sales. Median List Price: $205,000 Median Sales Price: $195,000
2008 – 387 Sales. Median List Price: $189,900 Median Sales Price: $184,500

Here’s how the fairy tale continues: this appraisal was performed the first week of January 2009, thus the appraiser would have concentrated on the 6 months prior to the report.  The appraiser would have access to the above information; however, this is not the type of sales history an individual appraiser will take the time to create or consider for one homeowner. The appraiser commented that this area had “…stable to modestly increasing property values.” I don’t know about that. What do you think?  $184,500 SOUNDS like quite a bit less to me than $195,000. A $10k drop in median value for one of Greater Cincinnati’s most popular areas in one year’s time! That’s information I might like to have if I’m selling a home, or re-financing and looking for true market value, (not pumped up re-fi value)  now that the dark cloud of slow sales has moved over the land.

Let’s consider something else in the appraisal that will cause even the sturdiest gargoyle to rock off its base. Under the “Additional Listings” section of the report, the appraiser voluntarily and arbitrarily decided to discuss a home that was being offered “for sale”, in “active” status in MLS, far above the most probable sales price, or market value, of the subject property. This home was entered into the report as an “oh, by the way” commentary. Just what did the appraiser say? Glad you asked. She noted that while “…this is not to be considered a comparable, due to the fact that it does not meet the requirements of a comparable, which is a closed sale. This listing exhibits the strength of the market in the area”.  In my book, 32 fewer sales than the year before, with a $10,000 drop in median price doesn’t sound too strong…but what do I know?   That “non-comp”  home was on the market, the day of the appraisal, January 6, 2009 at $183,500. It had first entered the market priced at $187,500. Currently, the home is still being marketed, 301 days later, and reduced to $177,500.

In some wierd way, I guess you can say the this home “…exhibits the strength of the market…” I just don’t think that was the twist the appraiser was going for.

In the meantime, there is a homeowner who has been given some “false hope” about the reality of the real estate market. Unfortunately, she has put her faith in this appraisal that is riddled with inaccuracies. I think I know a princess whose frock is about to get dirty.

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

Do you want to know what has been happening to real estate in Clifton Gas Light? If so, this is the report for you!

My name is Bryan Casteel and I live in the Clifton area and I am a real estate agent with RE/MAX Unlimited. Along with my Marketing Manager at my real estate team, The RealCincy Group, we just finished analyzing all the sales from the Greater Cincinnati MLS that have occurred in the Clifton Gas Light District since 1993 (almost 17 years of sales!).

We looked at prices trends, days on market, foreclosures and more. Out of this effort, we have produced the Clifton Real Estate Report.

With this report, you will learn:

• What has happened to prices of homes in Clifton Gas Light over the last 17 years
• How home sales have been affected by the foreclosure market
• What the price trends are for different sizes of homes (broken down by number of bedrooms)
• Why certain homes are not selling and other homes are “flying off the shelf”
• Are we “at the bottom” or is there more “pain” to be felt?

We have also included a whole section on what you can do to protect your home’s equity when selling in this difficult market.

We have both worked very hard to pull this information together. It is our hope that you will find this a valuable insight into the current market and where things may be heading in the future. We will continue to update this report on a regular basis to keep you informed.

This report is free for anyone, request your copy today!
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More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

Sometimes it is good to be ahead of a bad curve. The good news is the Cincinnati area is ahead of the national averages in returning to historical price ranges (see our earlier post).

We took the S&P/Case Shiller Home price index from 1987 to 2009 and adjusted it for inflation. You will notice that before the bubble, home prices were in a defined historic range. The housing bubble that began around 1999 blew this historic price range away.

We expect the national index to go below the historic price range before returning to normal pricing levels. The index released yesterday shows national home prices are still 10% to 11% above the expected pre-bubble price ranges when adjusted for inflation and it is not out of the realm of possibility to have the national index drop 10% to 15% below the historic price range.

So, where will prices end up? No one knows, but we can see the potential for another 20% to 25% drop before prices work their way back up to the historic price levels.

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

Click Graph to Enlarge

The historical price range of $163,000 to $171,000 was broken by the housing bubble that started in the late 1990s. The housing bubble peaked in 2005 when the average inflation adjusted price of a single family home was over $205,000.

2008 marked the official end to housing bubble prices in Cincinnati when prices returned to their historical range. In 2008, the average price of a single family home was $170,082.

Unfortunately, after a market bubble, prices often drop well below their historic price range before returning to normal levels over time – a classic bottoming process. So far this year, the average price of a single family home sold in the Cincinnati area tumbled 18.7% to $138,221. Current prices are 15% below the historical price range – a clear sign of a bottoming process.

This is a fantastic market to buy a home and properly priced homes are selling quickly. But it can be difficult to determine if a home is appropriately priced. Both buyers and sellers should be sure they use a full time professional real estate agent who understands the current market’s trends and can provide them with detailed pricing data.

Our team will also be releasing detail real estate reports on Mason, Eastgate and Clifton later this week. These reports will take a detail look at these real estate markets.

Cincinnati home prices from the MLS of Greater Cincinnati. Prices are for Warren, Hamilton, Clermont and Butler counties.

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

Currently, there are 3 loan categories. Loans under $417,000 are considered conforming. Loans $417,000 – $729,500 are in the conforming jumbo category. Loans over $729,500 are considered super jumbo.  Jumbo loans remain quite costly compared to the interest rates for conforming loans.  Jumbo buyers with outstanding credit and plenty of available cash for a down payment are being viewed as higher risk borrowers than those seeking a loan with lower credit scores and minimal down payment funds.

Nationally, sales above $750k are down. A month’s supply of luxury home inventory, a.k.a, the absorption rate, continues to rise. This trend is occurring both nationwide, and in the Greater Cincinnati area. Check out these numbers, by year, sales over $700,000. All stats, of course, from The Greater Cincinnati Multiple Listing Service:
               2000 – 118          2005 – 334  ** Peak of the housing bubble**
               2001 – 141          2006 – 327
               2002 – 200          2007 – 288
               2003 – 211          2008 – 209
               2004 – 283          2009 – Nearly ½ way through the year, “drum roll please”!    29 !!

Overall, precious few of us will ever need to obtain a jumbo or super jumbo mortgage, so you might wonder if this affects us. The answer is, of course, absolutely.  As these jumbo mortgages become increasingly difficult to obtain, many luxury buyers are forced to liquidate their assets to make the home purchase. The rest of us call that “paying cash”. Even though paying cash for a $1,000,000 plus home may be “do-able”, many are reluctant to do so when they should be able to find long term, low interest debt like the rest of us, and keep the cash right where they have it now. Presumably, making more cash.  The reluctance is obvious, as the shear volume of luxury sales has plummeted.

Jumbo Loans are Difficult to Obtain

This current scenario is doing its part to slow our economic growth, and certainly is inhibiting the “chained cougar” known as the Housing Market. The Housing Market is ready, willing, but not quite able to lead us out of our current economic situation. Unleash the “chained cougar”, and history tells us the Housing Market will start running toward recovery, and most of the rest of the economic sectors follow.  The ability to not just purchase, but to re-finance the high rate jumbos into lower rate loans would certainly help to give a kick in the seat of the pants of this sluggish economy.  If these jumbo borrowers were able to reasonably re-fi and save an estimated $6000 – $15,000 yearly on interest payments, well, wouldn’t they?  Money then free to be spent on vacations, education, clothing, and re-investment, potentially jump-starting and feeding other areas of the market.

The National Association of Realtors is doing there part to stir the pot on this issue.  The NAR has proposed that Congress and the White House take a close look at making permanent some rules that have been temporarily put in place recently to loosen the jumbo market. We’ll see how it goes. In the meantime, it’s back to window peeking.

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com