New Numbers for a New Year!

Hello all!  It’s been crazy- busy at our home, and I’m sure at yours too.  I hate to be a cliché and write about looking back, and looking forward, but hey, it’s January of a new year. What can I say?

Ok. I promise.  I’ll keep my philosophical ranting, and resolution making and breaking discussions, off this page, and stick to some good old fashioned MLS market data to keep you up to date.

The following data is for single family homes only, Butler, Warren, Hamilton, and Clermont County. 

This data is compiled from The Greater Cincinnati Multiple Listing Service, as of about 10:30 a.m. or so today.
Once again, a “Distressed Property” is a bank owned or government owned foreclosed on property, or a property still owned by a consumer, but requiring bank approval for a “short sale”.

Obviously, the numbers speak to the issues we have all experienced in the local real estate market.  I want to point out that, while indeed, there was an explosion of distressed properties for sale over the last few years, the MLS wasn’t as strict or accurate “pre-market correction” as it is currently.  In other words, we didn’t keep track as well of short sales.  Many real estate agents didn’t even know what a short sale was until the last couple of years.  I remember a conversation in early 2007 with 25 year veteran about my fear that we would be seeing more and more short sales in the coming years.  Her response…”what’s a short sale?”  So there you have it.

Here are some current numbers:

2010 To Date as of 10:30 a.m. January 4, 2010

One thing that jumped out at me here is that while the average list price in the 4 main counties of Greater Cincinnati is $240,144, the average list price of the home under contract, waiting to close, is significantly lower: $157,854.  That tells me that the lower priced “bargains” continue to fuel this market.  It will be interesting, of course, to see what this next year brings.  The good news is that if this is your snapshot in time to be entering the real estate market as a buyer, there is still plenty of good reason to do so: low interest rates, tax credits, good inventory, and you still have the upper hand in most markets and price points.

Sellers:  don’t be discouraged. If this is your snapshot in time to put your home on the market,  just be sure to hire the team of agents with a proven track record, good marketing ideas, and a head for numbers ( hint, hint).  Priced well to be the “next best value”, your home will sell.    The RealCincy Group is here to offer advice and keep you up to date on the competition. In Ohio & Kentucky, we can help.  With our OUTSTANDING marketing and trend watching, we’ll get your home sold

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

Stalled Luxury Home Sales

A few months ago I gave you information about the upscale housing market in the Greater Cincinnati area.  Those areas included Butler, Warren, Hamilton and Clermont counties.  We discussed the Jumbo Mortgage Market, and how tight control on the interest rates for the luxury home market may be slowing the housing market, at the “grass roots” level.

I just put together an update with closed sales stats through November 15, 2009.  I thought you might like an update.

Single Family Sales: Butler, Warren, Hamilton and Clermont Counties.
Source: Greater Cincinnati Multiple Listing Service

It’s possible that once the current 23 pending sales do close, that we the “Over $700k+” sales will not come to the anticipated 138 total.  We will just have to see if those homes, in this buyer driven market, that are priced close to the $700,000 list price, do indeed sell over $700,000

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

Our "leaf lawn"

Did you see that gorgeous full moon last night?  It was a beautiful sight.  I love the chilly nights and cool days.  The leaves are everywhere! I have to confess:  We don’t do a great job of raking at our house. Never have and probably never will. We just like the look of the scattered leaves. I am glad to see that several of our neighbors do too.  We aren’t the only house on the block with a “leaf lawn”.

Are you ready to take the time to look at year to date numbers? Let’s see how this year, through October 31, 2009, compares with the last few years, back to 2005.  These stats are, of course, from The Greater Cincinnati Multiple Listing Service. January 1 – October 31, single family closed sales, no auctions. The stats include the Hamilton, Clermont, Butler and Warren Counties.

                                                             January 1 – October 31 

See any trends here?  So far this year, closed single family dwelling sales are 394 units down from last year, but a whopping 5,476 from the 2005 high.  The list to sale ratio continued dropped with a “thud”, as buyers drove hard bargains. Combine the buyer’s “upper hand” approach to negotiations with sellers who are still over-pricing, and the L/S ratio widen.   The back story on these numbers you don’t see, are the number of homes that had to have 2 or 3 price reductions before a buyer wrote an offer that resulted in a closed sale.

If you want more detailed information about your specific neighborhood or price range, let me know! The RealCincy Group would be glad to prepare your personal report.

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

Back to school in Cincinnati!

“Do you have any lunch money?” “What should I wear tomorrow Mom?”  “ Are my new jeans clean?”

School is back in session and there is a new rhythm to life. The kids’ new clothes are hanging in the closet ready for the cool, brisk fall air. The school buses are out and running, classes are in session and it’s all about the Friday night football.

So how did the summer selling season go here in the Greater Cincinnati market? Well, I’m glad you asked. Overall, the Ohio housing market continues to show signs of improvement. There were signs of stabilization in July, with activity nearly dead on June activity.
Let’s look at this spring and summer selling season for 2009. Butler, Warren, Hamilton and Clermont counties, compared to 2005 – 2008. All information comes from the Greater Cincinnati Multiple Listing Service.

April 1 – August 31 – Single Family Homes – Butler, Warren, Hamilton & Clermont

   Year      # of Sales      Average List Price      Average Sales Price
   2005     10,144            $187,403                                 $182,223
   2006        9,868           $189,233                                 $183,643
   2007        8,821           $190,810                                 $183,342
   2008        7,320           $183,007                                 $174,375
   2009        7,174           $175,819                                 $165,954
Conclusions:  The $8000 tax credit combined with low interest rates, plentiful home options and more than enough “fixer-uppers” spurred the market forward.  You can see the average list price was down over $7000. There were deals to be had as the average sales price dropped over $8,400 from the same time period last year.  Sales noted as “distressed” claimed 25% of the summer single family market, or 1787 homes of the 7,174.

From home shopping with buyers recently, in several areas of town, I can tell you this: I have observed that prices have begun to stabilize, and as I‘ve been saying, “The good ones will sell.”  Unfortunately, too many Mason home sellers in the $300k – $400k range are terribly overpriced. Too cluttered. Too personalized. Too high. Homes in the Oakley, Hyde Park, and Mt. Lookout area in and around the $200k price range are flying off the shelf. It is definitely NOT a buyer’s market in all areas of town or in all price points.   Do you own a good starter home in Union Township?? Consider it sold.

The housing inventory is a little picked over, so if you have a nicely decorated and staged, well priced, well maintained home, now just might be a good time to go on the market. Warning: Don’t try to push up the price! We aren’t out of the woods yet, but there are ready willing and able buyers.

Would you like detailed information about your neighborhood? Let the RealCincy Group know and we would be happy to prepare a Right Price Analysis for your home.

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

Let’s concentrate on the combined Butler, Warren, Hamilton and Clermont county area market stats.  If you want specific stats about your school district or town, just let me know. I would be glad to provide that information to you!

Now, let’s look at this spring and summer selling season to date 2009, compared to 2005 – 2008. All information comes from the Greater Cincinnati Multiple Listing Service.

Stats:      2005 – 2009, to Date.   April 1 – July 31.

   Year      # of Sales      Average List Price      Average Sales Price

   2005     10,144            $187,403                                $182,223
   2006        9,868           $189,233                                 $183,643
   2007       8,821            $190,810                                 $183,342
   2008        7,320           $183,007                                $174,375
   2009        6,908           $166,842                                 $157,191

I think it is easy to draw more than a few conclusions with this information. Here are two thoughts:

1- Sellers were still not willing to accept that home prices were falling, as evidenced by the drop in average sales price in 2007, but a rise in average list price.
2 – The gap between list to sales price continued to widen, 2007 to present, as more distressed properties enter the market, pulling down overall home prices and averages.

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

Do you want to know what has been happening to real estate in Clifton Gas Light? If so, this is the report for you!

My name is Bryan Casteel and I live in the Clifton area and I am a real estate agent with RE/MAX Unlimited. Along with my Marketing Manager at my real estate team, The RealCincy Group, we just finished analyzing all the sales from the Greater Cincinnati MLS that have occurred in the Clifton Gas Light District since 1993 (almost 17 years of sales!).

We looked at prices trends, days on market, foreclosures and more. Out of this effort, we have produced the Clifton Real Estate Report.

With this report, you will learn:

• What has happened to prices of homes in Clifton Gas Light over the last 17 years
• How home sales have been affected by the foreclosure market
• What the price trends are for different sizes of homes (broken down by number of bedrooms)
• Why certain homes are not selling and other homes are “flying off the shelf”
• Are we “at the bottom” or is there more “pain” to be felt?

We have also included a whole section on what you can do to protect your home’s equity when selling in this difficult market.

We have both worked very hard to pull this information together. It is our hope that you will find this a valuable insight into the current market and where things may be heading in the future. We will continue to update this report on a regular basis to keep you informed.

This report is free for anyone, request your copy today!
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More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

Sometimes it is good to be ahead of a bad curve. The good news is the Cincinnati area is ahead of the national averages in returning to historical price ranges (see our earlier post).

We took the S&P/Case Shiller Home price index from 1987 to 2009 and adjusted it for inflation. You will notice that before the bubble, home prices were in a defined historic range. The housing bubble that began around 1999 blew this historic price range away.

We expect the national index to go below the historic price range before returning to normal pricing levels. The index released yesterday shows national home prices are still 10% to 11% above the expected pre-bubble price ranges when adjusted for inflation and it is not out of the realm of possibility to have the national index drop 10% to 15% below the historic price range.

So, where will prices end up? No one knows, but we can see the potential for another 20% to 25% drop before prices work their way back up to the historic price levels.

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

Currently, there are 3 loan categories. Loans under $417,000 are considered conforming. Loans $417,000 – $729,500 are in the conforming jumbo category. Loans over $729,500 are considered super jumbo.  Jumbo loans remain quite costly compared to the interest rates for conforming loans.  Jumbo buyers with outstanding credit and plenty of available cash for a down payment are being viewed as higher risk borrowers than those seeking a loan with lower credit scores and minimal down payment funds.

Nationally, sales above $750k are down. A month’s supply of luxury home inventory, a.k.a, the absorption rate, continues to rise. This trend is occurring both nationwide, and in the Greater Cincinnati area. Check out these numbers, by year, sales over $700,000. All stats, of course, from The Greater Cincinnati Multiple Listing Service:
               2000 – 118          2005 – 334  ** Peak of the housing bubble**
               2001 – 141          2006 – 327
               2002 – 200          2007 – 288
               2003 – 211          2008 – 209
               2004 – 283          2009 – Nearly ½ way through the year, “drum roll please”!    29 !!

Overall, precious few of us will ever need to obtain a jumbo or super jumbo mortgage, so you might wonder if this affects us. The answer is, of course, absolutely.  As these jumbo mortgages become increasingly difficult to obtain, many luxury buyers are forced to liquidate their assets to make the home purchase. The rest of us call that “paying cash”. Even though paying cash for a $1,000,000 plus home may be “do-able”, many are reluctant to do so when they should be able to find long term, low interest debt like the rest of us, and keep the cash right where they have it now. Presumably, making more cash.  The reluctance is obvious, as the shear volume of luxury sales has plummeted.

Jumbo Loans are Difficult to Obtain

This current scenario is doing its part to slow our economic growth, and certainly is inhibiting the “chained cougar” known as the Housing Market. The Housing Market is ready, willing, but not quite able to lead us out of our current economic situation. Unleash the “chained cougar”, and history tells us the Housing Market will start running toward recovery, and most of the rest of the economic sectors follow.  The ability to not just purchase, but to re-finance the high rate jumbos into lower rate loans would certainly help to give a kick in the seat of the pants of this sluggish economy.  If these jumbo borrowers were able to reasonably re-fi and save an estimated $6000 – $15,000 yearly on interest payments, well, wouldn’t they?  Money then free to be spent on vacations, education, clothing, and re-investment, potentially jump-starting and feeding other areas of the market.

The National Association of Realtors is doing there part to stir the pot on this issue.  The NAR has proposed that Congress and the White House take a close look at making permanent some rules that have been temporarily put in place recently to loosen the jumbo market. We’ll see how it goes. In the meantime, it’s back to window peeking.

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

Click this link here for a detailed, and I do mean detailed, monthly statistical charts. You’ll know more about the Greater Cincinnati real estate market trends than ever. This is really good information. Enjoy!

Click here to see MLS monthly and year end updates.  I immediately noticed a lot fewer licensed agents at the end of the year, than at the beginning of the year. Yep…it’s been difficult this last year. We are thankful for each and every opportunity that we’ve had in 2008 to assist our customers and clients with their real estate needs. We always appreciate the continued referrals from friends and past customers. Thank you.

The real estate market for residential sales in Cincinnati continued to decline, reaching into the double-digit drop from the same period last year.

In 2007, there were 22,265 home sales in Greater Cincinnati.
In 2008, there were 18,752 home sales in Greater Cincinnati. 

A 15.8% drop in volume.  Gross volume took a hit too. 21.4%. $3.9 billion in 2007 to $3 billion in 2008. We saw a drop in average sales price of 6.7 %, from $173,986 in 2007 to $162,340 in 2008.
We are currently seeing about a 10 month absorption rate. In other words, it could take about 10 months for any single home to sell, or be “absorbed” into the market. Although most sellers get a bit anxious after 90 days, a balanced market is about 6 months.

Northern Kentucky market statistics are interesting too. Northern Kentucky home sales dropped 14%, 5,126 in 2008 from 5965 in 2007.  Total volume dropped 13/3%, to $823.3 million last year from $949.7 million the year before.  The average sales price did rise 1% to $160,611 from $159,210.

So, what does 2009 bring? Dunno. What I can say is this: Interest rates are silly low. If you are sitting on the fence, trying to “time the market” and decide if it’s dropped low enough for you to get in on  a purchase, stop it.  Experts and armchair prognosticators alike disagree on “bottom”. Besides, by the time it’s identified, you’ve missed it. Enjoy the choice of good homes available, interest rates we didn’t think we would ever see again, and go buy a HOME!

If you want to sell….need to sell…..do not be discouraged. Well marketed, priced right, staged, “inspected and corrected”, your home will sell!! Look at our Guaranteed Sale Program. Maybe that will work for you. Check out our “Serious Sellers” Satisfaction Package. Is that a good fit? We have other options too. Give me a call. We’ll see what will work best for you and work on bringing up those 2009 numbers together.

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

The stats are from the Greater Cincinnati Multiple Listing Service, for Butler, Warren, Hamilton and Clermont counties.  Ready ?? Here goes!!

In the last 6 months, 7/04/08 – 12/31/08

Single Family Sales – 7084
Average List Price – $175,559
Average Sales Price – $166,517

Same 6 month time frame, one year ago, 7/04/07 – 12/31/07

Single Family Sales – 8299
Average List Price – $192,137
Average Sales Price $184,137         

              1,215 fewer sales with a $17,620 drop in average sales price. Wow!

It’s the last day of the month, and hopefully around town, a few closings are taking place at real estate and title company offices.  Those closings, when entered into the MLS on Monday after the New Year’s Holiday weekend will bring the final numbers up a bit for year end. The truth is, probably not enough to really make more than a “blip”, and certainly not enough to change the trend. So, read on if you’re feeling brave!

The following stats are all for Butler, Warren, Hamilton and Clermont Counties Combined. Single Family & Condo Sales Combined. Of course, all information is from The Greater Cincinnati Multiple Listing Service

1/01/08 – 12/31/08     Sales – 16,805 
Average List Price – $177,011       Average Sale Price – $168,355
4421 of the sales are noted as “Lender Owned, Government Owned, or Seller’s Lender Approval Required”

01/01/07 – 12/31/07     Sales – 19,967
Average List Price – $187,832       Average Sale Price – $180,394
3786 of the sales are noted as “Lender Owned, Government Owned, or Seller’s Lender Approval Required”

01/01/06 – 12/31/06     Sales – 22,706
Average List Price – $189,780       Average Sale Price – $184,071
3118 of the sales are noted as “Lender Owned, Government Owned, or Seller’s Lender Approval Required”

01/01/05 – 12/31/05     Sales – 24,203
Average List Price – $190,242       Average Sale Price – $185,164
339 of the sales are noted as “Lender Owned, Government Owned, or Seller’s Lender Approval Required”  

**Disclosure of Memory Failure Alert Here**  The Multiple Listing Service didn’t always have a search function for “short sale/lender approval”. That was added at some point when short sales became more frequent, rather than the “exception”.  I honestly can’t remember when it was added, but you can see the obvious huge jump in numbers 2006 from 2005, when as I said before, we could see that something was on the horizon, about to cause a major shift in the market.

01/01/04 – 12/31/04 Sales – 23,407
Average List Price – $182,607       Average Sale Price – $177,786
182 of the sales are noted as “Lender Owned or Government Owned”

What’s it all mean? It means that if you want to sell your home, you need to “get serious”. Check out our “Serious Sellers” Satisfaction Package!    We CAN Get Results!

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com