Stalled Luxury Home Sales

A few months ago I gave you information about the upscale housing market in the Greater Cincinnati area.  Those areas included Butler, Warren, Hamilton and Clermont counties.  We discussed the Jumbo Mortgage Market, and how tight control on the interest rates for the luxury home market may be slowing the housing market, at the “grass roots” level.

I just put together an update with closed sales stats through November 15, 2009.  I thought you might like an update.

Single Family Sales: Butler, Warren, Hamilton and Clermont Counties.
Source: Greater Cincinnati Multiple Listing Service

It’s possible that once the current 23 pending sales do close, that we the “Over $700k+” sales will not come to the anticipated 138 total.  We will just have to see if those homes, in this buyer driven market, that are priced close to the $700,000 list price, do indeed sell over $700,000

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

Our "leaf lawn"

Did you see that gorgeous full moon last night?  It was a beautiful sight.  I love the chilly nights and cool days.  The leaves are everywhere! I have to confess:  We don’t do a great job of raking at our house. Never have and probably never will. We just like the look of the scattered leaves. I am glad to see that several of our neighbors do too.  We aren’t the only house on the block with a “leaf lawn”.

Are you ready to take the time to look at year to date numbers? Let’s see how this year, through October 31, 2009, compares with the last few years, back to 2005.  These stats are, of course, from The Greater Cincinnati Multiple Listing Service. January 1 – October 31, single family closed sales, no auctions. The stats include the Hamilton, Clermont, Butler and Warren Counties.

                                                             January 1 – October 31 

See any trends here?  So far this year, closed single family dwelling sales are 394 units down from last year, but a whopping 5,476 from the 2005 high.  The list to sale ratio continued dropped with a “thud”, as buyers drove hard bargains. Combine the buyer’s “upper hand” approach to negotiations with sellers who are still over-pricing, and the L/S ratio widen.   The back story on these numbers you don’t see, are the number of homes that had to have 2 or 3 price reductions before a buyer wrote an offer that resulted in a closed sale.

If you want more detailed information about your specific neighborhood or price range, let me know! The RealCincy Group would be glad to prepare your personal report.

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

Currently, there are 3 loan categories. Loans under $417,000 are considered conforming. Loans $417,000 – $729,500 are in the conforming jumbo category. Loans over $729,500 are considered super jumbo.  Jumbo loans remain quite costly compared to the interest rates for conforming loans.  Jumbo buyers with outstanding credit and plenty of available cash for a down payment are being viewed as higher risk borrowers than those seeking a loan with lower credit scores and minimal down payment funds.

Nationally, sales above $750k are down. A month’s supply of luxury home inventory, a.k.a, the absorption rate, continues to rise. This trend is occurring both nationwide, and in the Greater Cincinnati area. Check out these numbers, by year, sales over $700,000. All stats, of course, from The Greater Cincinnati Multiple Listing Service:
               2000 – 118          2005 – 334  ** Peak of the housing bubble**
               2001 – 141          2006 – 327
               2002 – 200          2007 – 288
               2003 – 211          2008 – 209
               2004 – 283          2009 – Nearly ½ way through the year, “drum roll please”!    29 !!

Overall, precious few of us will ever need to obtain a jumbo or super jumbo mortgage, so you might wonder if this affects us. The answer is, of course, absolutely.  As these jumbo mortgages become increasingly difficult to obtain, many luxury buyers are forced to liquidate their assets to make the home purchase. The rest of us call that “paying cash”. Even though paying cash for a $1,000,000 plus home may be “do-able”, many are reluctant to do so when they should be able to find long term, low interest debt like the rest of us, and keep the cash right where they have it now. Presumably, making more cash.  The reluctance is obvious, as the shear volume of luxury sales has plummeted.

Jumbo Loans are Difficult to Obtain

This current scenario is doing its part to slow our economic growth, and certainly is inhibiting the “chained cougar” known as the Housing Market. The Housing Market is ready, willing, but not quite able to lead us out of our current economic situation. Unleash the “chained cougar”, and history tells us the Housing Market will start running toward recovery, and most of the rest of the economic sectors follow.  The ability to not just purchase, but to re-finance the high rate jumbos into lower rate loans would certainly help to give a kick in the seat of the pants of this sluggish economy.  If these jumbo borrowers were able to reasonably re-fi and save an estimated $6000 – $15,000 yearly on interest payments, well, wouldn’t they?  Money then free to be spent on vacations, education, clothing, and re-investment, potentially jump-starting and feeding other areas of the market.

The National Association of Realtors is doing there part to stir the pot on this issue.  The NAR has proposed that Congress and the White House take a close look at making permanent some rules that have been temporarily put in place recently to loosen the jumbo market. We’ll see how it goes. In the meantime, it’s back to window peeking.

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

I grew up thinking “chili” as in “Tex-Mex” or Texas style chili. A big ole’ bowl of chili pepper spiced ground beef, onions, kidney beans, tomatoes. Pile on the cheese and hot peppers. When I was about 11 years old and needed to earn my Girl Scout Cooking Badge, I flipped through my mom’s circa 1960’something Betty Crocker cookbook, and found a recipe I thought my family would go for.  Chili-ghetti it was called. Basically, make the beef, beans and onion tomato-based sauce, and serve it on spaghetti. It was a hit, even with my twerp little brothers.

When I first move to Cincinnati in 1988, a co-worker suggested Skyline for lunch. I wrongly assumed it would be similar to the Chili-ghetti I so proudly served.  She warned me that most people don’t like it at first. I didn’t. “You have to try it a second time” she said, “… it takes getting used to.”  She was right. I’m hooked.

Now, for something different: Cincinnati-style chili.

Don’t think Tex-Mex, think Greek.  Cincinnati style chili recipes are all based on what might be considered a Greek version of spaghetti.  Spices like cinnamon, cloves, and rumors of chocolate, are woven into the closely guarded secret recipes of each of Cincinnati’s old chili parlors.  Pile the chili on a hot dog or spaghetti, serve with soda crackers and hot sauce, and you now have a regional delicacy!  Cincinnati is the Chili Capital of the World, with bragging rights to more chili parlors per capita than anywhere else you will ever live.

You need to learn the lingo if you’re going to be mistaken as a Cincinnati native.  A 3-way is the sauce, spaghetti and generous heap of cheddar cheese.  A 4 – way: sauce, spaghetti, cheese, and your choice of beans or onion.  A 5-way is the base, plus onions and beans. Definitely my favorite. Hot sauce and soda crackers are a must.  Of course, the sauce can be found in burritos, on salads,  or on top of hot dogs then topped with cheese.  (I watched Randy eat 4 of those one day, I promise) A Greek salad with feta cheese and kalamata olives makes a great side too.

 By the way, you don’t “twirl” the spaghetti, you cut. I don’t know, it’s some kinda’ rule. Rule breakers will be quickly admonished by the seasoned Cincinnati-style chili connoisseur.

A couple of the most popular chains are Skyline and Gold Star.  Skyline Chili opened in 1949. The first restaurant strategically overlooked the Cincinnati skyline. Skyline products can be found in groceries and Skyline Dip is a staple at “bring an appetizer” parties all over town.  Gold Star Chili was opened in 1965 by 4 brothers who scraped together $1200 to open their first restaurant, Hamburger Heaven, in the Mt Washington area. On the menu was their Greek inspired chili. They “tweaked” the recipe until they had a hit. The brothers renamed the store Gold Star and opened 2 more restaurants within the year!

Independent or small chain parlors are a hit here too.  Price Hill Chili is a west side landmark, family owned.  Big specialty sandwiches, tasty appetizers, and salads are on the menu. But it’s all about the chili that gives this Cincinnati establishment its name.

Pleasant Ridge Chili is known for its late night dining. Open until the unreasonable hour of 4:30 am, you know they are competing for the attention of the White Castle and all night pancake house crowd. They probably win.

Empress Chile has 3 locations, including one in Alexandria, Ky. On the Ohio side of the river, you’ll find Empress on Vine Street and Rapid Run Road.  Milk shakes, good looking salads, and a popular baked potato entry topped with the sauce. I can’t say I’ve been to Empress, but I hear nothing but good things. Give it a try in my stead.

Randy raves about Dixie Chili.  Established in 1929, “Papa Nick” opened Newport, Kentucky’s first chili parlor. Remember the lingo? 3 –way, 4-way, etc?  At Empress, they offer a 6 – way that include chopped garlic. I’m willing to bet that’s good.

Now my favorite: Blue Ash Chili. Established in 1969, this chili parlor is like entering a ‘50’s diner complete with celebrity photos and the tempting desserts under glass on the counter. Have the carrot cake. Our office is close enough to Blue Ash Chili that whenever we have a team meeting of The RealCincy Group, we look for an excuse to make it a late lunch or early dinner at Blue Ash Chili.  Their 6 –way adds jalapenos to the 5-way base. Incredible! The double and triple decker sandwiches could feed a small army. They have a gyro served on a grilled pita with onion, tomato and tzatziki sauce that I want to try. Problem is, I can’t go in there and NOT get a 5 –way or 6-way. What’s a girl to do?  Be sure to play the Spin to Win game on their website. Maybe you’ll win a freebie.

There are small, local parlors dotted throughout the Greater Cincinnati area. No doubt, wherever you decide to live in the area, there will be a Cincinnati-style chili parlor right around the corner. Give it a try. Then try it a second time….it’s take some getting used to.

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

Because of Teresa’s expertise, she has been a featured contributor to WCPO Channel 9 News, The Cincinnati Enquirer, and Home Improvement Magazine.

Teresa and Stage a Star has developed for you a complete and total staging package, always keeping in mind the individual homeowners’ needs and budget. You will receive a 50+ page guide, jammed with tips, checklists, and a “Seller Survival” guide. I’ve seen it! You’re going to love it! 

You just never know when a buyer will decide she is ready to see your home. You may get a 1 or 2 day notice.  Sometimes you get about 15 minutes notice. Rule #1 – Never, Never turn down a showing. Talking with Teresa the other day, she shared one of the tips she gives to sellers.  She suggests homeowners get a basket for the bathroom. Every day, before leaving the house, toss all the hair brushes, mouse, styling products, toothpaste, floss, tweezers, all the items we need to make ourselves pleasant for the public, into the basket, and stuff it under the sink.  Sounds simple, but when you want to sell, need to sell, every little tip that makes life easier for you is a blessing. And, you won’t panic when you get the call from the appointment center letting you know someone just drove by your home and would like to see it….in 15 minutes.

Her consultation package includes a CD Rom with success stories. There are 1 or 2 visit packages to choose from.  She will stage using your furnishings, concentrating of the areas of the home most important to buyers: kitchen, living room, dining room, master bedroom and baths.   Vacant home staging is offered too. Staging a vacant home is critical to getting a home sold! I know from touring with buyers every blemish just jumps out and gives the eagle-eyed buyer too many opportunities to dismiss the home over cosmetic and very minor flaws. Every cobweb stands out, every carpet stain, no matter how small, is magnified.  If you’ve already moved out, I can not overstate the importance of vacant home staging.  Prices will vary of course, depending on what the two of you agree to do.

Now your home is staged, and we need to show it off. I know for a fact many homebuyers will immediately dismiss a home when searching the net for homes to visit, if the online photos are not available from Day one. Teresa has wisely partnered with Jenny Walters Photography. You can view Jenny’s work on the Stage a Star site. You can’t help but be impressed by Jenny’s eye for even the smallest detail. Your home will leap off the computer screen and onto the buyer’s “Must See List”.

Be sure to visit the Stage a Star site and enjoy the before and after gallery. It’s fun to see the transformations. Teresa, Jenny and the rest of The RealCincy Group  look forward to helping you sell.

Give us a Call.      36 Days. Wow!

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

Click this link here for a detailed, and I do mean detailed, monthly statistical charts. You’ll know more about the Greater Cincinnati real estate market trends than ever. This is really good information. Enjoy!

Click here to see MLS monthly and year end updates.  I immediately noticed a lot fewer licensed agents at the end of the year, than at the beginning of the year. Yep…it’s been difficult this last year. We are thankful for each and every opportunity that we’ve had in 2008 to assist our customers and clients with their real estate needs. We always appreciate the continued referrals from friends and past customers. Thank you.

The real estate market for residential sales in Cincinnati continued to decline, reaching into the double-digit drop from the same period last year.

In 2007, there were 22,265 home sales in Greater Cincinnati.
In 2008, there were 18,752 home sales in Greater Cincinnati. 

A 15.8% drop in volume.  Gross volume took a hit too. 21.4%. $3.9 billion in 2007 to $3 billion in 2008. We saw a drop in average sales price of 6.7 %, from $173,986 in 2007 to $162,340 in 2008.
We are currently seeing about a 10 month absorption rate. In other words, it could take about 10 months for any single home to sell, or be “absorbed” into the market. Although most sellers get a bit anxious after 90 days, a balanced market is about 6 months.

Northern Kentucky market statistics are interesting too. Northern Kentucky home sales dropped 14%, 5,126 in 2008 from 5965 in 2007.  Total volume dropped 13/3%, to $823.3 million last year from $949.7 million the year before.  The average sales price did rise 1% to $160,611 from $159,210.

So, what does 2009 bring? Dunno. What I can say is this: Interest rates are silly low. If you are sitting on the fence, trying to “time the market” and decide if it’s dropped low enough for you to get in on  a purchase, stop it.  Experts and armchair prognosticators alike disagree on “bottom”. Besides, by the time it’s identified, you’ve missed it. Enjoy the choice of good homes available, interest rates we didn’t think we would ever see again, and go buy a HOME!

If you want to sell….need to sell…..do not be discouraged. Well marketed, priced right, staged, “inspected and corrected”, your home will sell!! Look at our Guaranteed Sale Program. Maybe that will work for you. Check out our “Serious Sellers” Satisfaction Package. Is that a good fit? We have other options too. Give me a call. We’ll see what will work best for you and work on bringing up those 2009 numbers together.

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com

What our GSP does:

• It does relieve you of the burden of owning 2 homes
• It does relieve you of the frustration of writing a contingency offer that the seller promptly rejects
• It does relieve you of the worry that someone else is living in “your home”.  You’ve combed through the homes on the market, you found “the one”. Now, it won’t get away from you!
• It does keep you from having to take out a bridge loan, or tap into a line of credit to buy the home you really want
• It lets you Relax. Your home is SOLD!    Get some sleep.

No Application Fee!  You Always Get Market Value, Maybe More!

• 120 Day Buy-out
• No Carrying Costs After the Sale.  If we buy it, we own it! No money held back from you.
• No Seller contribution. That means the seller of your new home doesn’t bump up the cost of sale to you!
Sounds Good Doesn’t It?  So, here’s the “fine print”:
What our GSP doesn’t do:

• No multi-family homes or farms. No modular or distant rural homes.
• No homes that are not served by public utilities
• No homes outside of our market area
• No short sales or homes that are heading toward foreclosure.

Case by Case, we will consider condo, townhomes, and homes with pools.

More “fine print”:
• The RealCincy Group assists you in the purchase of your new home. We can help you in both Ohio and Kentucky
• We all agree, in writing, to our first offering list price, subsequent price reductions.
• Your home is purchased, after 120 days, at 95% of agreed market value, minus normal seller expenses.

“Why would I agree to that?”  Because, if WE buy your home at that price, that mean no one else in the open market would.  You have, in effect, “won the lottery” and come out ahead! WE carry the home and all the expenses. WE do the painting & maintenance on the empty house after you move into and are enjoying the new home! WE take on the risk of marketing the home….You’re Done!

If you would like more details, give us a call! We will show you our 120 Point Comprehensive Marketing Plan. Combining this Revised and Updated Marketing Plan for today’s real estate environment, taking advantage of the Serious Seller’s Satisfaction Package, with the security of the Guaranteed Sale Program, you can stop worrying  ……… and start packing!

More Cincinnati real estate information can be found at RealCincy.com